

#217 – Beth Barnes on the most important graph in AI right now — and the 7-month rule that governs its progress
AI models today have a 50% chance of successfully completing a task that would take an expert human one hour. Seven months ago, that number was roughly 30 minutes — and seven months before that, 15 minutes. These are substantial, multi-step tasks requiring sustained focus: building web applications, conducting machine…
We score an episode from what we can actually measure — its reach and engagement, what listeners say about it, and what it covers. We don't have those signals for this one yet, so it doesn't get a number.
Buzzmeter says it's buzzing across platforms — the Hive Vote says whether the people who actually listened liked it.
Rate this episode
Add your vote to the Hive — listeners rate every episode after they finish.
- No reviews yet — be the first.
More from 80,000 Hours Podcast
See all episodes →Similar episodes from other shows
More like 80,000 Hours Podcast →
Is AI About to “Eat Everything”? | AI Reality Check

METR’s Joel Becker on exponential Time Horizon Evals, Threat Models, and the Limits of AI Productivity

If the Public Knew This About AI, They'd Panic: Roman Yampolskiy | Ep 286 with Dr. Roman Yampolskiy

Joscha Bach: AGI, Consciousness, and the Evolution of Intelligence
One great episode in your inbox, daily — free.
One email a day, unsubscribe anytime. No spam, ever.


